Perceptions by Gerry Warner

Aside from the success of those wonderful Toronto Blue Jays, Canada is possibly headed for a hell of a mess Oct. 19! Politically, it could be the worst mess of all – a constitutional mess.

Unlike the U.S. where a written constitution covers all eventualities, we have the Constitution Act of 1982, which is written, but also relies on English parliamentary “tradition,” which is unwritten and dates back to when Canada was a colony ruled by imperial Britain.

Where the rub comes in is if we fail to elect a majority government and the result is a so-called  “hung parliament” with no party gaining a majority Oct. 19. If the minority parliament is one led by Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, we’ll dodge the bullet because NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair will likely support Trudeau in exchange for Trudeau adopting some NDP policies. In other words necessity will force a political ‘deal’ between two parties that otherwise don’t like each other. Such deals have happened before in Canadian political history, but they’ve never lasted long.

But if the elected minority government Oct. 19 is Conservative all hell will break loose and we could have a government chosen by Governor-General David Johnston, who will have the unenviable task of deciding which party, or coalition of parties, has the best chance of surviving a non-confidence vote in Parliament.

And for that ugly mess there’s only one man to thank – Stephen Harper!

Apologies to all you Conservatives out there but what I’ve said is the unvarnished truth. Harper has so antagonized the other party leaders in Parliament that virtually all of them have categorically stated they will vote down any Throne Speech brought down by him. And if the Throne Speech is defeated, the government falls and we’re plunged back into another election. How many Canadians want that? Few to none, I suspect.

But there’s a silver lining to this potential mess. If the polls can be believed, it looks like we’ll wake up to a minority government Oct. 20 led by Justin Trudeau. Phew! That would mean no election for at least a year or two because a Trudeau government will likely cut a deal with NDP leader Tom Mulcair, who has taken a statesman-like approach to the looming constitutional crisis by saying he’s open to working with Trudeau even in a coalition government if necessary. Good for Tom! Our country may desperately need a statesman Oct. 20 because the last coalition government in Canadian political history occurred during war time in 1917.

Trust me. What’s being written here is not idle speculation. There’s a very real possibility that come dawn of Oct. 20 no party will have a majority and we’ll enter the political never-never land of minorities and coalitions.

And for this nasty imbroglio we can thank Harper, who in his Machiavellian ways, has played a vicious game of wedge politics pitting Canadian against Canadian to his Conservative advantage. He’s done this by playing rural Canadians against urban, ‘Old Stock’ Canadians against immigrants, religious Canadians against secular, peace-lovers against war-mongers. The list goes on.

And if Harper succeeds in his nefarious ways we’ll be faced with the very real possibility of going to the polls again soon because he’s already stated he’ll ask the Governor-General to form a government even if the Conservatives only win a narrow minority.

So there it is. A pretty sad situation don’t you think? A great country like Canada being twisted into knots like a pretzel because of the dark vision of one man who wants to impose his iron will on an entire country like he’s already done to his weak-willed party.

Are we going to let him get away with this?

– Gerry Warner is a retired journalist

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