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Don’t put your political pencils away yet
“Perceptions” by Gerry Warner
Op-Ed Commentary
As accountants love to say, “sharpen your pencils.” In the Digital Age, this may sound quaint or even absurd. But as a metaphor for what happens next in B.C. politics, some province-wide pencil sharpening may well prove to be prophetic because we may be going to the polls again much sooner than most people think.
Ouch!
Sorry to rain on your parade, but as we stand on the eve of glorious summer, especially after the dreadful winter we had this year, another provincial election seems almost inevitable for two main reasons – the polarized nature of B.C. politics and the heavy hand of history which presses hard on our pencil finger.
Let’s deal with history first. You have to go back more than 100 years to encounter a similar situation to what we’re dealing with now. In 1908, Newfoundland, not yet a Canadian province but operating under the same British parliamentary conventions that we follow today, had an election that resulted in a dead heat with both parties winning 18 seats each. Neither party would give up one of its members to be Speaker forcing the Lieutenant-Governor to dissolve parliament and call another election.
So, what do you think the chances are that any of our 87 MLAs will spontaneously stick up their hand when Lt.-Gov. Judith Guichon calls for the House to elect a speaker June 22? Slim to none unless MLAs have made a secret agreement behind closed doors for a member to step forward as Speaker and collect the Speaker’s extra salary of $52,940 for enforcing the rules of the House.
The pay is good but the politics are bad because any MLA who took it upon themselves to do this would be regarded as a traitor by their respective party. Nevertheless, this would be the most sensible and sane way out of the political dilemma MLAs find themselves in because of the closest election result in B.C. history.
But B.C. politics are not known for being sensible or sane. Quite the opposite. Politics in B.C. are often described as a “blood sport: and this would seem to preclude any pragmatic, closed-door Speaker deal having been made so the circus can continue. If a handshake deal has been done behind closed doors, it’s got to be the best kept secret in Victoria on a scale of who killed JR. But I wouldn’t rule it out entirely because politicians are a slippery lot and capable of doing most anything when their political survival is at stake.
Rumours are swirling that corporate B.C. is frantically swelling the Liberals political war chest with donations in the interregnum before the Legislature is recalled because they believe Christy Clark has a Machiavellian plan to stay in power despite the election result. Sound far-fetched? Well, all it would take is for one NDP or Green MLA to cross the floor and the Liberals would have a majority. Conversely, who’s to say there isn’t a disgruntled Liberal MLA who’s ready to retire that wouldn’t do the same thing? Maybe Clark herself is ready to throw in the towel after her humbling by the voters in May?
But I have to say I doubt that. Clark’s a fighter and having once won an election that no one thought she could win, I’d be greatly surprised to see her slink from the stage to get her reward even though that reward would be more than generous. It wouldn’t surprise me a bit if sly Christy hasn’t got something up her proverbial sleeve to being this most tenuous of agreements between the Greens and the NDP tumbling down.
If I was John Horgan or Andrew Weaver, I’d be watching my back when the legislature resumes. Baring a miracle, we could could be headed to the polls this summer to pencil another “X.”
– Gerry Warner is a retired journalist who’s seen more than a few greasy palms make political deals over the years.
